S&P 500 Hits SAR at 1085

As reported previously, we set one stop at 1,085, which was the parabolic SAR. It got hit yesterday so that gives us a profit of +30 points (1115-1085) or +2.69%.

It does look as if that 200DMA is not going to be tested but never say never. If 1,105 is reached then we will stop that out too and possibly reverse our position. Looking at MACD to verify the SAR and the positive trend if the SP500 breaks the 50DMA.

I repeat, for the sake of our simple trading system we shall use the 50 and 200 DMAs as our primary indicators with the SAR, supported by MACD, for fine tuning.

The HYT Trading Week: Indexes Getting Sandwiched

A lot of huffing and puffing this week has resulted in very little movement albeit a slow drift higher. Let's look at this S&P 500 chart. The index is still being sandwiched between the 50DMA and 200DMA (at 1,108 and 1,024 respectively) with the index closing Friday at 1,075.

As always, my advice is not to try and guess which way it will move, but rather to be in the correct position to take advantage of the next trend. As I've only just restarted this blog, let me put some numbers to the trade.

I will assume that every new trade can be split in two, so for simplicity I will assume 2 contracts. Markets can be volatile and this allows one to take profits from one contract and thereby leaving the second one to trade 'free'. If the trend continues then we will accumulate and as it reverses take profits.

So, on 22 Jan 2010, Short S&P 500 at 1,115 with 2 contracts.

We can now safely move our stop down to 1,105, with a guarantee of a 10 point gain (about 0.9%). The strategy now is as follows: if the index continues to rise we will close when it hits the SAR (about 1,085) and then the 50DMA (about 1,105); if the index starts to drop again then wait until it reaches the 200DMA.

The point here is that we can now afford to be patient. Last week's newsletters seemed to be filling space saying that essentially nobody knows what's going to happen next. If this proves to be a minor correction and the upward trend continues, then we've made a bit of money. If this proves to be the start of another leg down, then we're in the right way round.

I will now tend to write at High Yield Times at the weekend unless one of the indicators is triggered, at which point I'll post during the week.

Markets Squeezed and Waiting for a Breakout

Well, this blog ground to a grinding halt pretty quickly! Actually, 2009 was a deeply V-shaped year for amny reasons, but you don't care about that, so let's get down to the numbers again.

The stockmarkets in Europe and the US are currently getting squeezed into a channel flanked by the 50-day moving average (50DMA) as a resistance and the 200-day moving average (200DMA) as the support. As usual, I'll look at the S&P 500 and you can figure it all out for other markets.

The SP500 currently has the 50DMA at about 1,100 and the 200DMA at about 1,020. It hasn't yet tested the 200DMA but I expect it will sometime this month. In spite of the flag-waving and cheering from the corporate press this market looks like it's suffering from flu. The market pumps, especially of the Dow, are just to rip off the unwary day trader. For this month, if you haven't already gone short when it broke the 50DMA then it's too late and wait for it to go through either of the two DMAs as they converge on each other. [see SP500 chart]

As I write this the Dow is getting another dose of vertigo at 10,000 and with sovereign debt hanging over the whole world I don't think there's much enthusiasm here.